SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI — my answer on all three is no!
u/ReflectionFew3395 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 04, 2026 at 22:21
· ⬆ 35 pts
· 💬 58 comments
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Summary
The author is bearish on SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI at current private valuations, citing excessive pricing (SpaceX at ~$2T on $20B revenue), low defensibility for AI firms (open‑source models, rapid disruption), and a general expectation of a tech correction.
The thesis is that these companies are not "no forever" but "no at this price" – he would rather wait for a pullback (e.g., SpaceX at ~$1T) and skip Anthropic/OpenAI due to moat concerns.
Quality assessment: Reasoned opinion with qualitative arguments and some revenue data, but light on detailed financials or valuation models – more of a speculative opinion than deep research.
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**SpaceX:** Great company, terrible price. A \~$2 trillion valuation on \~$20 billion of revenue just doesn't add up for me. On top of that, the market is running very hot right now, and markets always correct — go pull up Jan–Feb 2022 and the tech crash, everything came down together. When that happens again (and it will), SpaceX comes down with everything else. I'd rather wait and pick it up closer to \~$1 trillion. This isn't "no forever," it's "no at this price."
**Anthropic:** The growth is genuinely insane (\~$10B ARR in Jan 2026 to \~$45B ARR now), but that's exactly the problem. A year ago they were nowhere — it was all OpenAI, ChatGPT, and Gemini — and they came from behind and took the space fast. If they could do that to someone else, someone can do it to them. The threat I see most clearly is Chinese open-weight models. I think China dumps fully open models, weights and all, and people just run them locally — the way Airbnb did it: took open-source models, kept all their data in-house, nothing going to China. The "I can't run a huge model on my laptop" problem? NVIDIA's solving it — Jensen's new machine is reportedly built for agents instead of humans, with data-center-class GPU power and the speed agents actually need. Low defensibility, so I pass.
**OpenAI:** Same story, arguably worse. At least Anthropic has enterprise clients as some kind of moat; OpenAI really doesn't. And I'm broadly skeptical of software-only businesses in a world moving this fast.
So SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI — my answer on all three is no.
Tell me where I'm wrong. What's the bull case I'm missing, especially on defensibility?