Trade Desk is down 67% from its high while still growing revenue.

Trade Desk runs the largest independent demand-side platform for programmatic advertising. When a brand wants to buy digital ads across streaming TV, podcasts, display, or basically any screen that isn't Google or Meta, they often run it through TTD. The "independent" part matters because they don't own media inventory, which means they have no conflict of interest with their clients. ROIC: 54.7% (5yr avg: 8.1% - Insane leap) Gross margin: 77.8% FCF margin: 27.9% Revenue CAGR 5yr: 42.6% P/E: 22.9x Fair value estimate: \~$30 (using 9% discount rate) Current price: \~$20 so the stock is sitting almost exactly at my fair value estimate right now but that's after falling 67% from a 52 week high of $91 which means either the stock was wildly overvalued at $91 and the business has fundamentally deteriorated, or the market is genuinely mispricing something. i think it's mostly the first one with some of the second mixed in. Q1 just came in with revenue of $689 million, up 12% year over year. That's slower than the historical growth rate but it's not a collapsing business. EPS of $0.28 met estimates and they also just appointed a new CFO which adds some short term uncertainty on top of an already uncertain macro environment for ad spending. the bear case is real and worth taking seriously. Ad budgets are discretionary and get cut fast in downturns. Google and Meta continue to absorb an enormous share of digital ad spend and there's also a legitimate question about whether AI changes how brands buy media at all. If LLMs start optimizing ad placements directly, where does TTD fit in that world. the bull case is equally real. CTV is growing fast and TTD has a strong position there. Retail media networks are emerging as a massive new channel and TTD is building infrastructure to connect buyers to that inventory. The platform model with 77.8% gross margins means incremental revenue is highly profitable. The ROIC jump from 8.1% to 54.7% is the number i keep staring at. That's either a sign of genuine platform maturity kicking in or it's a one year anomaly. If it's structural, the stock at $30 looks very different than if it mean reverts. My concerns are that Rothschild just initiated coverage with a Sell, which is worth noting alongside some insider selling recently. and the new CFO appointment adds uncertainty about capital allocation priorities going forward. Anyone here follow TTD closely? curious how you're thinking about the AI disruption risk to programmatic and whether the CTV growth story is durable enough to justify the platform premium.