SpaceX valued at just $780 billion by Morningstar, less than half its IPO target
u/ThinkBigger01 ·
Reddit — r/investing
· June 02, 2026 at 18:33
· ⬆ 272 pts
· 💬 63 comments
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Summary
The post discusses Morningstar's $780 billion valuation of SpaceX ahead of its IPO, less than half the reported IPO target, and warns retail investors to avoid buying for at least six months.
The author’s thesis is that the IPO is overpriced, private venture funds will dump shares post-lockup, and a classic pump-and-dump pattern (ETF buying then short attacks) will lead to a 30-50% crash.
Quality assessment: Speculation with anecdotal reasoning; lacks hard data on lockup schedules or short interest, but outlines a plausible market mechanics scenario.
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SpaceX just got slapped with a bearish valuation ahead of its monster IPO coming up later this month. The report signals that one of the most anticipated offerings in years may be significantly overpriced, just as CEO Elon Musk tries to justify the valuation.
This again shows (long-term) investors really SHOULD NOT buy this stock in the first 6 months.
Don't forget private venture funds in those first 6 months will be able and actually FORCED to DUMP their stock in multiple phases which could create a slow (or fast) salami-crash.
The reason I'm saying "forced" is most may not know that alot of those private funds who have been invested 10+ years in SpaceX
We all know how it's gonna play-out.. first it will probably pump because around 2 weeks after IPO it will be adopted into indexes like QQQ who will have to buy it.. and than the big shorts like Citadel and Millenium will come in crashing it based on it's overvaluation. This could get brutal.
I wouldn't be surprised to see SpaceX stock crash 30-50% after that.