The MP/Intel setup is here again and you are all too busy pumping SPCE to notice. $CLF and $WOLF DD
u/jimmy-smallz ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· May 31, 2026 at 17:17
· ⬆ 16 pts
· 💬 7 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The author argues that Wolfspeed ($WOLF) and Cleveland-Cliffs ($CLF) are the sole U.S. domestic producers of silicon carbide power semiconductors and grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), respectively, and that recent Defense Production Act (DPA) determinations plus CHIPS Act precedents (like Intel’s equity stake) will lead to direct government investment, driving significant stock appreciation.
The thesis is a repeat of the MP Materials and Intel plays: government deems a critical domestic supplier essential to national security, then provides contracts or equity stakes, causing a sharp revaluation.
Quality assessment: Moderately well-researched speculation. The post cites specific policy documents (Section 303 of DPA, April 20 determination) and compares historical analogues, but relies on anticipated government action that may not materialize. The top comment raises a counter-argument about CLF’s growth potential being limited.
Score16
Comments7
Upvote %75%
▶ Full Post Text
Yesterday I posted a DD on the product and demand side of the $WOLF trade. Today I will clarify the other and even more compelling angle which we have seen play out way to many times already in the last 2 years.
About a month ago, the prez invoked Section 303 of the Defense Production Act for grid infrastructure. This is the same legal authority used to commandeer factories for wartime production. The document explicitly names "electrical core steel" and "power control electronics" as materials essential to national security, and directs the Secretary of Energy to make direct purchases, purchase commitments, and use financial instruments to expand domestic production.
There is exactly one company in the United States that makes electrical core steel for transformers. There is exactly one company that makes SiC power semis domestically. This is the EXACT same setup that MP had.
Those companies are $CLF and $WOLF.
Remember MP? One US mine & processing facility. Near-total dependence on China for the supply chain behind every EV motor and defense system. The president signs an executive order. DoD starts cutting direct contracts. Stock goes from the teens to over $60 in months. The thesis wasn't that MP was a great company. The thesis was that the government decided that they were vital to national security.
Now remember INTC? Biden promises $8.5B in CHIPS money. Trump takes office, looks at the deal, and instead of canceling it does something nobody expected: converts the grants into an equity stake. The US government becomes a 10% shareholder in Intel. I don't have to tell you what happens to the stock (we love you nana)
Once upon a time there was a company that bet its entire existence on EV demand being real and infinite. They built the only SiC fab in the US at a cost of \~$5B. They hoped every electric car would need their SiC, then the EV market collapsed. The company went bankrupt and just restructured its debt and equity.
In my previous DD I explained why the demand for their products will no longer come from EV but for componentry needed for Solid State transformers in data centers. Go see that if you want the basic technical explanation.
So now what? The restructured Wolfspeed that emerged from bankruptcy has $2 billion in debt instead of $6.7 billion. The new senior secured note structure has an interest rate step-down clause tied to receiving $450 million in additional government award disbursements. Someone designed that capital structure around anticipated government money. Is this an accident?
The $750 million CHIPS are still on the table. And the White House doesn't do grants anymore, they do equity stakes. If the DOE comes in with a strategic investment in reorganized Wolfspeed, they're buying into a clean(er) balance sheet at a fraction of the replacement cost of the only domestic SiC manufacturing base in existence. That is the Intel template applied to WOLF. It happened with MP in rare earths. It happened with Intel when everyone hated them.
Enough about $WOLF, I am obviously biased because I'm balls deep. The same setup is there for another company you have never heard of.
Cleveland-Cliffs is not a sexy AI stock. It's a steel company with a medium-crappy balance sheet and a stock that has spent years getting beat up. This is exactly why nobody has connected the dots yet.
CLF is the ONLY domestic producer of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), the specialized steel that forms the magnetic core of every large power transformer in the United States. Without GOES there are no transformers. The supply chain currently runs through Japan, South Korea, and increasingly China. Lead times on large power transformers are already at three to four years before the DPA determination. The grid buildout needed for AI data centres, domestic manufacturing reshoring, and grid modernization is going to require transformers at an unprecedented rate.
The April 20 presidential determination names "electrical core steel" explicitly as a material essential to national defense. It authorizes the Secretary of Energy to make direct purchases, purchase commitments, and financial instruments to expand domestic production capacity. There is no ambiguity about who that benefits. There is no domestic competitor to CLF for GOES. They are the only logical beneficiary.
Watch for government grants/contracts/equity stakes. Stocks will go boom. When it comes, most people will be surprised. If you made it this far, you won't be. It's sitting right there in plain English.
Positions: 100 CLF Leaps and a fuckton of WOLF stock and calls.