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Why? It’s just such an obvious prime target.
The biggest ipo is about to happen at the highest valuation ever, then you have this little beat down company who nobody believes in, in the same sector with a very similar ticker. And there was good reason not to believe in it: its own IPO was a scheme to get excessive amounts of liquidity from ignorant retail who were excited about space, not dissimilar to what SpaceX is doing now.
The difference is that was years ago and over the past half decade retail lost its interest and it started being traded at fairer valuations, though with added unknowns and risks so nobody wanted to touch it. Space is the hardest sector to value, and is very niche. Mutual funds aren’t that interested in taking chances on it in your boomer parents portfolios.
And here’s something I see so overlooked for no good reason: 25% short interest. No not 140% like GME but 25% is enough. Why? Because it’s not just about the short interest but how easily the shorts can get shares when need to cover their rears. And that’s usually a trivial problem, just offer slightly above market and some institutional will sell to you, right? Why wouldn’t they? Well what if all the shares are being held by retail investors who don’t plan to sell until it 10xs even if the fundamentals don’t justify it. Well then you got a problem. This is what leads to short squeezes and VW notoriously squeezed 5x on just 14% short to float in 2008, because the shareholders were VW themselves and governments who didn’t want to sell. So a squeeze on SPCE is very very possible and even likely at this point.
But the biggest reason of all this is going to go parabolic, is that we all have a shared and agreed upon earliest date that we will hold to. We all know when the biggest IPO ever is scheduled for, it’s all i hear people talk about even as an indexer because index funds are going to be buying into it and that has a lot of indexers like me looking at their portfolios and the space sector in general right now. That’s how myself as a Boglehead found SPCE to begin with. So this thing has so much potential to catch on to others like me and go perpendicular.
So there is at least 2 weeks of extremely limited liquidity on a stock with very low float and valuation, where nobody will be selling for highly irrational reasons, that has short interest that shorts will have to cover the higher this goes, and which might be confused on IPO with the ticker of the biggest IPO in history, and nobody is selling at least until the day of IPO or after and we all pretty much collectively agreed on this date without needing to argue about it.
I’m sure a lot of ppl on this forum feel like this is just another penny stock to pump since you guys do this alll the time, but trust me this one is different. Im literally the lame dude that thinks what you guys do every other time with penny stocks is ridiculous and nothing more than gambling when you guys should get your shit together and just buy VT.
But once every 5 years you guys manage to find some beat down low value company like GME and SPCE and you hit something institutional investors can’t see: virality, memeability, community, narratives, and extremely irrational “regarded HODLing”.