Everyone writes off solar as speculative. First Solar has a 30% net margin and trades at 16x earnings.

First Solar is the only major US-headquartered solar manufacturer and they make thin-film cadmium telluride panels, which is a different technology than the silicon panels most Chinese manufacturers produce. That distinction matters more than people realize rn. ROIC: 12.6% (5yr avg: 5.8%) Gross margin: 41.7% Net margin: 30.7% FCF margin: 21.2% Revenue CAGR 5yr: essentially flat (this is the catch, more on that below) P/E: 16.7x Fair value estimate: \~$545 (using 9% discount rate) Current price: \~$264 the 30.7% net margin on a solar manufacturer is genuinely unusual. Most solar companies operate on razor thin margins because the panel market is brutally commoditized. First Solar avoids that trap because their thin-film technology and US manufacturing footprint put them in a different category entirely. They just reported Q1 and it was strong showing record revenue, record sales in India, margin expansion, and EBITDA came in above the top end of their own preview range. They also just announced a partnership with GameChange Solar for India-focused thin-film deployment which is a meaningful signal about international demand. The big concern that jumps out immediately is the 5yr revenue CAGR being basically flat. That looks alarming until you understand what happened. First Solar went through a major manufacturing transition over the past few years, shifting from Series 6 to their newer higher efficiency modules. that transition compressed revenue during the changeover period and the recent acceleration is what you'd expect coming out the other side of that. Also a record Q1 revenue kind of confirms the thesis. The other thing worth knowing is the Section 45X manufacturing tax credit situation. First Solar benefits significantly from domestic manufacturing incentives. the political risk around those credits is real and worth factoring in; if the IRA gets meaningfully unwound that changes the economics. A sixth manufacturing facility is coming in South Carolina in late 2026, which when fully ramped in 2027 takes annual domestic capacity from 14 GW to over 17 GW which is a meaningful capacity expansion that should drive revenue growth if demand holds. idk, the valuation gap between $264 and my $545 fair value estimate feels wide even accounting for the political risk discount but i want to hear from people who follow the solar space more closely. How are you thinking about the IRA credit risk and whether the capacity expansion translates into actual revenue growth? and is the thin-film technology advantage durable or does Chinese manufacturing eventually close the gap?