Ultimate DD on why this is the TOP - Technical Analysis (Cumming Formation) | Reddit — r/wallstreetbets Ideas & AI Summary

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Summary

The author declares an imminent market top (S&P 500 around 7600) with a sharp pullback to the 6900-7000 area, followed by a year-end rally. The “TA” is vulgar but essentially a bearish short-term call with a V-shaped recovery floor.
Specific positions include bearish put spreads on SOXX and XSP (mini-SPX), a put on MTUM, and a long VIX call spread — all expressing downside conviction in the near term.
Quality assessment: Noise — low-effort, meme-driven “DD” with no fundamental or quantitative data; the chart is a crude drawing. The author does hold real positions, but the thesis is pure speculation.

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Comments 37

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I am officially calling the top, and I think we will have a sharp pullback to the 7,000 handle area, maybe even touch the 6,900 handle (cuz why not 69), then shoot back up again into year end.

If you look at the chart, we just had 2 months of green candles and the index is starting to look like a big green dildo that is ready to ejaculate (many of you regarded bulls even fantasize about it). But if you really think we are taking off from here, you are very wrong and will become exit liquidity.

I think today is when the market came. Micron blasted 20% in one no-news day and hit a $1 trillion market cap, and the space fucking retards are richer than God. Getting soft and mean reverting back to flaccid is almost inevitable after cumming this hard.

And as you can see, we have the Wendy’s dumpster graph above the 7,600 level (this means it’s a bull trap).

Because of the new Fed chair and the NY Knicks making it to the finals, this is the biggest evidence that the flaccid downside is right around the corner. But you need to pay attention to the drop. By the time the index drops below 7,100, all of you regards are gonna panic again, and panic selling will only give away your returns and wives, so don’t do that.

If you see the gae bear graph below 6,800, that means it’s a bear trap. So if you panic sell like a regard, you will look dumber than the bag holders who bought the 7,600 top, and both of you will meet in the dumpster.

And if you look at the right side of the graph, the balls and hair both indicate we launch again from there. I personally will load some calls at the bottom with my put profits and ride into the sunset. But I still think it’s a good time to add LEAPS in the right-side ball sack area.

https://preview.redd.it/inhfikt0uk3h1.jpg?width=1284&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=721f2182541c0a060b79c16a2981012b11b2e362

As for positions:

I still hold most of my shorts (took profit on my SPX puts last friday and added back 1 XSP Put spread today &amp; will add 1 additional put spread each day till the big drop)

VIX Jun 17 25/35 CALL SPREAD  
SOXX Jul 17 480/400 PUT SPREAD  
MTUM Nov 20 290 PUT

XSP Jul 17 745/720 PUT SPREAD

https://preview.redd.it/sa10efk8xk3h1.png?width=1080&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=ff688869e0a568cdb70fcc8e01d3d0681431b36b

https://preview.redd.it/8dpdkyd9xk3h1.png?width=1080&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=68b38e9448d128096b4cccfa017fdfb069235a3b

https://preview.redd.it/7j04oy0axk3h1.png?width=1080&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=d12e6f33497f54a0e20b057b898f6c01be83f299

https://preview.redd.it/j8nkrx7gxk3h1.jpg?width=1205&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=02f0999363eaed5079ebd893a85dcbb43840a3ba

Ideas

u/iloveaccounting64 Reddit r/wallstreetbets

Author holds a VIX Jun 17 25/35 call spread, betting on a volatility spike. A sharp index pullback (to 6900-7000) would likely lift VIX, making this spread profitable. Short-term vol hedge against a market top; high leverage, binary outcome. Market continues higher or only slowly drifts lower – VIX can collapse, making the spread worthless.

u/iloveaccounting64 Reddit r/wallstreetbets

Author opened a SOXX Jul 17 480/400 put spread, directly profiting from semiconductor weakness. Micron’s 20% “no-news” spike is cited as a top signal in the sector; mean reversion expected. Short semis into peak euphoria – a contrarian, momentum-based bet. Semiconductors remain strong on AI capex; Micron could sustain gains. Option theta decay.

u/iloveaccounting64 Reddit r/wallstreetbets

Author owns a MTUM Nov 20 290 put, betting momentum factor reverses. Market top would crush recent winners, and momentum funds often rebalance sharply. Factor-based hedge against a rotation out of high-momentum names. Momentum can persist longer than expected; time decay is slow over 6 months. XSP (mini-SPX) - SHORT | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: -0.80 Speaker: u/iloveaccounting64 Thesis: Author holds XSP Jul 17 745/720 put spread and plans to add daily, targeting a drop to 7000. The “cumming formation” chart supposedly signals a bull trap above 7600, with a bear trap below 6800; the estimated pullback is to 6900-7000. Direct bearish index bet with a defined risk spread; scale-in strategy. Fed chair transition or Knicks finals (irrelevant) could be shrugged off; index could melt higher.

Ultimate DD on why this is the TOP - Technical Analysis (Cumming Formation)

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