u/judechrist4444 ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· May 26, 2026 at 19:16
· ⬆ 89 pts
· 💬 42 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The post argues that Palantir ($PLTR) is overvalued and in decline due to its reliance on a "surveillance" narrative that is politically toxic ahead of the midterms, with the stock breaking below its 200-day moving average and down 25% YTD.
The author compares PLTR unfavorably to C3 AI ($AI), a similar company trading at a $1.5B market cap, claiming PLTR’s premium is unjustified given its limited commercial exposure and dependence on government contracts.
Quality assessment: Speculation mixed with some technical and fundamental reasoning (price action, political risk, valuation comparison), but lacks deep financial modeling or revenue breakdowns – closer to opinion than robust DD.
Score89
Comments42
Upvote %79%
▶ Full Post Text
The stock has dipped below it's 200D MA and the continued narrative coming out of the Trump admin is broken. Palantir's epic rise is precisely as a govt surveillance tool - not as some advanced AI operating system that would help the U.S. govt run more efficiently.
No one wants to be pitching that surveillance narrative as the midterms are rapidly approaching - that's why $PLTR is down 25% ytd and just keeps on gapping down.
Even at a market cap of $300bn, it's wildly overvalued as a professional services company that builds AI-tailored software for the U.S. government ((with limited commercial exposure).
It terms of comparable businesses, you should look at C3 AI - a Redwood City based software company founded by Tom Seibel - who is trading at a mere $1.5bn.
They do the same work, but apparently $PLTR earns an enormous premium just working for Trump spying on citizens.
PLTR has dipped below its 200D MA, down 25% YTD, and is valued at ~$300B while peers like C3 AI trade at $1.5B, suggesting extreme overvaluation for a government-focused software/services company with limited commercial revenue. The politically sensitive surveillance narrative is a headwind ahead of the midterms, and continued negative momentum (gapping down) creates a short-selling opportunity as institutional money rotates away. Short PLTR based on deteriorating technicals, political risk, and valuation compression relative to comparable firms. Unexpected positive government contracts, AI hype re-igniting, or a broader tech rally could invalidate the thesis; short squeeze potential given high retail interest.
This Reddit post, published May 26, 2026,
features u/judechrist4444
discussing PLTR.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.