The single biggest gap between my backtests and live PnL was midpoint fills

u/Nvestiq · Reddit — r/algotrading · May 25, 2026 at 20:34 · ⬆ 15 pts · 💬 16 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • The post identifies a critical flaw in retail backtesters: they assume trades fill at the bid-ask midpoint, ignoring real-world spread costs, which causes significant live PnL underperformance (20-50%).
  • Author argues that realistic fill modeling (including half-spread each side plus slippage) can slash expected returns and Sharpe ratios by 50% or more, especially for high-frequency or low-edge strategies.
  • The thesis is a warning to algorithmic traders: backtest results are inflated unless spread/slippage costs are explicitly accounted for.

  • Quality assessment: Well-researched DD. The author provides concrete examples, quantifies the impact (bp per trade, Sharpe degradation), and identifies a widespread assumption error. The post is not speculative but rather a practical, experience-based insight with clear data.

Score 15
Comments 16
Upvote % 86%
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