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I’ve been looking into Campine NV and wanted to sanity-check the thesis here.
The company had a monster 2025, mostly because antimony prices went crazy. So I’m not assuming the recent EBITDA is a normal run-rate. That’s probably the biggest risk in the whole story.
The obvious bear case is that lead-acid battery makers may reduce antimony content over time. Campine itself basically said high antimony prices pushed some customers to reduce usage or look at alternatives.
But I’m not sure the conclusion is as simple as “less antimony = thesis dead.”
The part I find interesting is tin. Some newer lead-acid battery designs use lead-calcium-tin systems instead of traditional lead-antimony grids. So if antimony use declines in some battery types, tin content may rise at least partly.
Campine already recovers tin in its Metals Recovery segment, along with antimony, silver and gold. Management also mentioned that high tin prices helped the business in 2025. Tin prices have been strong, so this could be a partial offset.
To be clear, I’m not saying tin perfectly hedges antimony. It depends on scrap mix, recovery rates, pricing, and how battery chemistry actually evolves. But I do think the bear case needs to account for the fact that Campine recovers more than just antimony.
Other things I like:
Campine has been around for more than 100 years, so this is not some new promotional small-cap.
They bought Ecobat’s French battery recycling assets, which expands their footprint, and they did it without issuing shares.
Share count is still around 1.5m.
Balance sheet still looks reasonable after the acquisition (even improved)
Management seems fairly conservative. They don’t come across as super promotional, and over the last year they seem to have guided cautiously and then delivered better numbers.
There may also be another acquisition in 2026 or 2027. In a Trends Talk interview on YouTube, the CEO talked about looking at further acquisition opportunities. The video had almost no views, which surprised me.
EU regulation is another possible tailwind. Stricter recycling rules should favour companies that already have permits, scale, compliance and proper facilities. It should make life harder for low-standard recyclers and increase the value of local recycling capacity.
Main risks as I see them:
2025 earnings may be peak-cycle.
Antimony prices could normalize.
Customers may substitute away from antimony.
Lead prices are weak.
Recycling businesses can have environmental liabilities.
Small-cap liquidity is limited.
Commodity spreads can move against them quickly.
So I’m not saying this is obviously cheap or risk-free. I just think it may be more than an antimony spike story.
My current view is that Campine is a small, underfollowed recycler with unusually strong exposure to antimony, tin and battery recycling. The tin angle is what makes the antimony-substitution risk less black-and-white for me.
Curious if anyone here has looked at the company or sees a flaw in the tin/antimony argument.
Not financial advice. I own shares / am considering adding, so assume I’m biased.
The risks are obvious too:
Antimony prices could normalize.
2025 may have been peak earnings.
Lead prices are weak.
Battery chemistry can change.
Commodity businesses are volatile.
Environmental liabilities always matter in recycling.
And small-cap liquidity is not great.
So this is not a “risk-free compounder” or anything like that.
But I do think Campine is more interesting than the market gives it credit for. The easy take is that it is just an antimony spike story. My view is that it is slowly becoming a European circular-metals platform, with antimony, tin and battery recycling all feeding into the same broader trend.
The tin point is especially important to me: even if antimony content in some batteries declines, that does not necessarily destroy the thesis. If tin content rises at the same time, Campine may be partially hedged through its Metals Recovery business.
Not a perfect hedge. Not guaranteed. But enough to make the story more resilient than it first looks.
Not financial advice. I own shares (over 99% of my portfolio) / am researching the company, so assume I’m biased