u/iloveaccounting64 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 21, 2026 at 23:06
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 41 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author argues that FICO’s historical moat was regulation-engineered and has been lost, citing a massive price hike from $0.20 to $10 per pull and competition from a customer charging only $1.
The thesis is that FICO is projected to lose 30% market share by 2027, yet the stock price still assumes no further erosion, making it a potential short candidate.
Quality assessment: This is moderately well-reasoned DD based on a third-party interview (Steve Eisman) and specific price/market share data, but lacks independent verification and detailed financial analysis – closer to informed speculation.
Score15
Comments41
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Listened to Steve Eisman’s interview with the sell side analyst covering fico.
It doesn’t sound too good for fico. Its moat was a regulation engineered moat.and they have lost that moat.
The company hiked prices from 20 cents a pull in 2022 to 10 dollars a pull now. And it’s now competing with its own customer and the competitor charges 1 dollar.
Fico is projected to lose 30% market share by 2027 and the market is pricing fico as if they won’t lose further market shares.
I don’t know if it’s a good idea to short at this price but that interview surely deterred me from buying fico.