big tech's $350B AI capex is returning about 18 cents on the dollar
u/Simple_Response8041 ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· May 21, 2026 at 16:24
· ⬆ 27 pts
· 💬 16 comments
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I pulled Q1 2026 10Qs for $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $AAPL. Combined capex guidance is roughly $353B. Identifiable AI revenue across all five? About $61.5B trailing. That's $0.18 per capex dollar.
Honestly Meta was the worst to isolate because their AI value is buried in ad optimization. I ran the filings through MuleRun to get structured data then spot checked myself. Microsoft at 27% looks solid thanks to Copilot bundling. Amazon committing $105B at only 13% is the number that actually worries me. Positions: long $MSFT, $GOOGL.