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Memory at peak cycle and BofA just doubled the MU price target to 950. What am I missing on the margin of safety here?

u/Leading-Equal204 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · May 19, 2026 at 03:55 · ⬆ 19 pts · 💬 8 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • The author analyzes Micron (MU) after BofA’s price target upgrade to $950, arguing the stock already prices in permanent peak gross margins while memory remains cyclical.
  • He compares to 2018’s super-cycle collapse and notes institutional 13F filings show “smart money” bought Alphabet (GOOGL) instead of semiconductors.
  • His thesis: Wait for contract pricing weakness or HBM supply catch-up before adding; current margin of safety is insufficient.

  • Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with historical context, valuation math, and smart-money flow analysis.

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