Thoughts on the Cerebras (CBRS) stock price after that huge IPO jump?

No Position yet. Hey everyone, just looking at Cerebras (CBRS) since it started trading last week and the price looks crazy high compared to what they actually make(ikr). The tech is super cool. They make this massive chip the size of a manhole cover instead of linking a bunch of small ones together, so it basically makes AI go brrr. But we gotta separate a cool product from what the stock is actually worth. \### The numbers \* IPO price was $185 \* Day 1 closed at $311.07 \* They brought in $510M in revenue last year. \* The news says they made $238M in profit, but that is mostly because of a one-time accounting trick. The actual day-to-day business lost around $146M. \--- \### Why people are hyped 1. \*\*The OpenAI deal:\*\* They signed a massive contract with OpenAI that could bring in billions over a few years. That means a ton of growth is guaranteed. (\[Source: Cerebras & OpenAI Partnership\](https://www.cerebras.ai/blog/openai-partners-with-cerebras-to-bring-high-speed-inference-to-the-mainstream)) 2. \*\*The AWS deal:\*\* They signed a deal with Amazon to get their tech into the AWS cloud. (\[Source: AWS Cloud Collaboration\](https://www.cerebras.ai/press-release/awscollaboration)) 3. \*\*Nvidia alternative:\*\* Right now, Nvidia has a massive monopoly. Cerebras is one of the only real independent choices out there if you want another chip option. \--- \### Why it is risky At $311, the company is valued at around $95 billion. That is way over 100 times what they actually sell. Even with the OpenAI money, that is an insane price. Plus, there are some big red flags in their paperwork: 1. \*\*The UAE situation:\*\* Everyone is talking about how they stopped relying on that G42 company in Dubai. But another UAE university (MBZUAI) actually made up 62% of their sales last year. If you add them together, 86% of their money still comes from the UAE. That is a huge risk if the US government changes export rules. (\[Source: Financial & Valuation Breakdown\](https://mlq.ai/news/cerebras-soars-68-in-nasdaq-debut-pushing-ai-chipmakers-value-to-roughly-95-billion/)) 2. \*\*Greg Brockman's shares:\*\* In the Elon Musk vs OpenAI lawsuit that is going on right now, the president of OpenAI, Greg Brockman, admitted he personally owns stock in Cerebras. He owned it while he was making deals for OpenAI to buy from them. That looks like a big conflict of interest and could turn into a legal mess. (\[Source: Court Disclosures on Brockman Stake\](https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/openai-brockman-30-billion-stake-altman-ties-2026/)) 3. \*\*They are losing money:\*\* If you take out that one-time accounting trick, they lost over $75M last year. Usually, stocks that get this much hype on day one end up grinding down after a few months. \--- \### My plan for buying Buying over $300 is just chasing the hype. I am keeping it on a watchlist but waiting for it to drop. \* \*\*The original price:\*\* The big institutions priced the IPO at $185, and even that was expensive. If it drops back down to the $185–$200 range, it makes a lot more sense. \* \*\*Insiders selling:\*\* The early investors have a 6-month lock-up that ends around November. Usually, when that hits, insiders dump a ton of shares and the price drops.