30 year treasury yield at highest since may 2025. CPI 3.8% PPI 6%. BofA: no cuts until july 2027. JPMorgan: next move is a HIKE. warsh's first FOMC is june 17 and the bond market is already doing his job for him.

friday closed with the 30-year treasury yield at its highest level since may 22 2025, approaching territory not seen consistently since before the 2008 financial crisis. that is the bond market pricing in a HIKE not a cut. CPI 3.8 percent in april. PPI 6 percent annual with wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month, driving over 40 percent of the april goods increase. core CPI 2.8 percent. powell's second term as chair expired friday may 15. kevin warsh confirmed by the senate may 13 in a 54 to 45 vote, the narrowest margin since 1977. warsh told the senate banking committee he wants "regime change" at the fed including changing how the central bank measures inflation. bank of america's aditya bhave (may 8 note) now forecasts no rate cuts until july 2027. jpmorgan's michael feroli forecasts the next fed move is a 25bp HIKE in Q3 2027, not a cut. goldman has pushed cuts to december 2026. trader markets are now fully pricing in one fed hike by march, with more than a 50 percent chance rates rise before the end of 2026. separately: gold dropped 114 dollars on friday in a single day (opened 4652, closed 4538, low 4511 intraday on the broker daily candle). silver collapsed from a weekly high near 88 to a 75.89 close. inflation hedges are crashing into accelerating inflation. the bond market is winning that fight via real rates. the cause of the inflation is hormuz. iran has restricted shipping since early march, 20 percent of world oil and LNG normally moves through the strait. trump rejected iran's MOU counter-proposal on may 10 and 11 as "garbage." no signed diplomatic path forward. project freedom paused may 6. the nvidia h200 deal was approved by the US in january but blocked by china pushing domestic huawei ascend. anthropic published "2028: two scenarios for global AI leadership" on may 14 framing this exact h200 dynamic as the global AI inflection point. warsh's first FOMC is june 17. the bond market is already doing his job for him.