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What kind of due diligence would have led me to buy SNDK before it ran?

u/yohosse · Reddit — r/stocks · May 12, 2026 at 20:34 · ⬆ 64 pts · 💬 117 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • The author expresses frustration at missing SanDisk’s (SNDK) rally and asks how to find such stocks before they run.
  • Several comments identify a logical chain from AI data-center buildouts driving demand for memory/storage (SNDK, MU, WDC, STX) and related infrastructure (energy, connectors).
  • Quality assessment: The post is a personal reflection/lament, not a well-researched DD; the comments provide speculative but reasoned sector analysis.
Score 64
Comments 117
Upvote % 75%
Ideas
u/yohosse Reddit r/stocks
AI data centers massively increase demand for NAND flash and storage; Sandisk is a pure-play spin-off from WDC. Multiple commenters explicitly bought SNDK mid‑2025 based on Tom’s Hardware article about a storage pricing apocalypse. The structural demand shift from AI infrastructure creates a sustained tailwind for SNDK even after its initial run. Cyclical memory downturn, competitor capacity adds, or AI buildout slowing could cap further upside. TICKER - MU - LONG | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Beginning-Fig-9089 (top comment) Thesis: Micron is a dominant DRAM/NAND supplier; one commenter began buying MU mid‑2025 after seeing similar articles about storage supply crunch. Strong historical correlation between AI data center buildout and memory demand; MU trades at a discount to peak multiples. Micron benefits directly from the same pricing apocalypse thesis, with added leverage to HBM (high‑bandwidth memory) for AI GPUs. Overcapacity from Samsung/SK Hynix, geopolitical risks (China export controls), or a sharper memory price correction. TICKER - WDC - LONG | confidence: 0.65 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Beginning-Fig-9089 (top comment) & u/Worried-Reflection10 Thesis: Western Digital (spun off SNDK) remains a major HDD and NAND player; commenter bought alongside MU and STX. Data centers require both flash (fast) and HDD (bulk storage); WDC has exposure to both, plus a potential valuation re‑rating post‑spinoff. The storage demand thesis applies equally to WDC, and its HDD business gains from nearline storage for cold data in AI training. Competition from SSDs replacing HDDs, execution risk after corporate restructuring, or weaker than expected HDD demand. TICKER - STX - LONG | confidence: 0.60 | sentiment: +0.65 Speaker: u/Beginning-Fig-9089 (top comment) Thesis: Seagate is the other dominant HDD maker; commenter included STX in the same storage basket buy. HDDs remain the cheapest per‑terabyte option for massive data lakes; AI training stores huge datasets. Seagate benefits from the same data center storage boom as WDC, with a pure‑play HDD focus and improving margins. SSD price erosion encroaching on HDD territory, slower enterprise adoption, or cyclical enterprise spending pullback. TICKER - FSLR - LONG | confidence: 0.55 | sentiment: +0.60 Speaker: u/BulmasEx (top comment) Thesis: Data centers are massive electricity consumers; First Solar produces utility‑scale solar panels well‑suited for powering new builds. As AI infrastructure expands, demand for renewable energy to satisfy corporate ESG goals and local grid constraints rises. FSLR offers a differentiated thin‑film technology that captures the energy‑infrastructure side of the AI capex cycle. Execution on manufacturing capacity, policy changes (tariffs/IRA), competition from Chinese solar, or slower data center construction.
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This Reddit post, published May 12, 2026, features u/yohosse discussing SNDK. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/yohosse  · Tickers: SNDK