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A few days ago I made a post explaining why I went heavily into AMD around the $120 range and why I believed the market was massively underestimating the company’s long-term AI growth potential.
Since then, the position has continued to run and I’m now up over $80,000 total.
But I also decided to significantly de-risk the trade.
When AMD pushed above $420, I sold off all of the margin I was using and trimmed some of my leveraged exposure. I wanted to lock in profits while still maintaining a massive long-term position because I still believe AMD is in the early stages of a much bigger move.
Right now I’m still holding roughly:
* \~$70,000 in AMD
* \~$50,000 in AMDL
Even after taking profits, this is still by far the biggest position I’ve ever had.
For the last two years I’ve been completely obsessed with understanding this company.
I listened to earnings calls, tracked AI infrastructure spending, watched hyperscaler capex trends, studied MI300 adoption, looked at data center growth, profit margins, valuation history, and how companies like NVIDIA repriced once earnings started exploding.
The more I researched, the more I started noticing a massive disconnect between AMD’s growth and the way the market is valuing it.
According to Bloomberg consensus estimates:
* 2026 EPS: $6.76
* 2027 EPS: $11.21
That’s around 66% year-over-year earnings growth.
At the same time, forward valuation multiples continue collapsing:
* 2025 forward P/E: \~85x
* 2026: \~44x
* 2027: \~27x
* projected 2028: \~16x
That’s the part almost nobody is talking about.
Historically, AMD has NEVER traded at these kinds of compressed valuations during periods of accelerating growth.
Not once.
In my opinion, the market is still pricing AMD like a maturing semiconductor company, while the earnings trajectory increasingly looks like a high-growth AI platform.
To me, this looks very similar to what happened with NVIDIA before the market fully repriced the earnings expansion.
And before people say I’m blindly hyping the stock there are obviously real risks:
* competition from NVIDIA/custom silicon
* AI demand slowing
* macro conditions
* valuation compression continuing
But I genuinely believe AMD is one of the most misunderstood large-cap stocks in the market right now.
A lot of people thought I was insane for using margin and leverage as a college student.
Honestly… maybe they were right.
That’s why I sold the margin and de-risked.
But I still have extremely high conviction long term.
And yes, there is actual math behind my projections, not just hype.
I built out a full multi-year earnings and valuation model for AMD through 2028 based on revenue growth, EPS expansion, and historical valuation ranges.
I still believe this stock has a path toward $1,000+ over the long term if earnings continue compounding at this pace and the market eventually rerates the valuation.
Curious if anyone would actually want to see the full projection/model breakdown because there’s a lot more behind this thesis than I can fit into one Reddit post. If anyone actually wants to see the math behind why I’m still all-in on AMD, I can post the full projections and valuation model. There’s a lot more behind this thesis than just hype.