how much more upside in micron?

Key-Month-7766 · 2026-05-08T16:24:33+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post discusses Micron (MU) and the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) shortage, questioning how much more upside remains and when to book profits. - The author’s thesis: HBM demand is structurally undersupplied for at least two years, making forward P/E look cheap despite a near-$1T valuation, but fears a Cisco-style bubble later. - Quality assessment: Speculation with some quantitative backing (10% price hike in a week, forward EPS estimates). Community adds EPS target of $96 in 2027, implying 2x+ upside at 20x P/E. Not deep DD, but informed retail conjecture. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === TICKER - MU | direction: LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Key-Month-7766 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: HBM shortage expected to worsen through end of 2026; recent 10% price hike; TSMC sees orders through 2029; community EPS estimate of $96 in 2027. 2. THE BRIDGE: If $96 EPS materializes, a 20x multiple gives $1,920/share (~115% upside from ~$890). Forward P/E looks dirt cheap relative to demand. 3. THE VERDICT: Long MU on structural HBM scarcity and AI infrastructure boom; valuation supported by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. 4. RISKS: Cyclical downturn, capacity catch-up by Samsung/SK Hynix, geopolitical disruption, or a sharp slowdown in AI capex. Cisco-like bust risk acknowledged. Timeframe: medium-term (12-24 months) Key Points: - HBM shortage lasting 2+ years - 2027 EPS $96, target $1,920 - 10% weekly price hike momentum - Demand orders through 2029 - Book profits if P/E > 25x TICKER - SMH | direction: LONG | confidence: 0.55 | sentiment: +0.50 Speaker: u/Key-Month-7766 (implied by sector thesis) Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The entire semiconductor ecosystem benefits from AI/HBM demand; TSMC reported record sales; no slowdown in 3 years. 2. THE BRIDGE: If MU is a beneficiary of the boom, broader semiconductor ETF SMH captures the tailwind without single-stock risk. 3. THE VERDICT: Long SMH as a diversified play on the A

u/Key-Month-7766 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · May 08, 2026 at 16:24 · ⬆ 16 pts · 💬 62 comments | View on Reddit ↗

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Summary

The post discusses Micron (MU) and the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) shortage, questioning how much more upside remains and when to book profits.
The author’s thesis: HBM demand is structurally undersupplied for at least two years, making forward P/E look cheap despite a near-$1T valuation, but fears a Cisco-style bubble later.
Quality assessment: Speculation with some quantitative backing (10% price hike in a week, forward EPS estimates). Community adds EPS target of $96 in 2027, implying 2x+ upside at 20x P/E. Not deep DD, but informed retail conjecture.

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