8 months running a trend-following algo lost money, but I think I finally understand why
u/Thiru_7223 ·
Reddit — r/algotrading
· May 08, 2026 at 09:15
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 25 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
Post describes 8 months of losses from a live trend-following FX algo due to lack of regime filter, static sizing, and real-time curve-fitting.
Author’s thesis: strategy entry logic is secondary; proper sizing, regime awareness, and discipline during drawdown are the critical factors for success.
Quality assessment: This is a personal reflection with some quantitative insight, but no data or backtest results are shared—more anecdotal experience than rigorous DD.
Score15
Comments25
Upvote %82%
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Started this purely to remove my worst habit overriding my own rules mid-trade. Built a simple trend-following algo on FX, backtested decent, went live.Wasn't fully hands-off though. I kept checking and tweaking whenever the market felt different. That was the real problem. No regime filter meant it got chopped apart during ranging conditions. Sizing was static so when volatility expanded, I was overexposed. And every drawdown stretch I'd adjust something basically curve-fitting in real time without realizing it.Down on the account after 8 months. But I understand now that the strategy is almost secondary. Sizing, regime awareness, and leaving the system alone during drawdown matters more than the entry logic ever did.Building v2 now. We'll see.
Anyone else blow up their first live system and come back with a cleaner build?