Trimming Micron to put money into undervalued asset light royalty collecting healthcare stocks.
u/BearWithMeGM ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 07, 2026 at 11:18
· ⬆ 20 pts
· 💬 32 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
Author is trimming Micron (MU) after its massive outperformance and reallocating into two asset-light, high-margin, counter-cyclical healthcare royalty companies: Royalty Pharma (RPRX) and Halozyme (HALO).
Thesis: RPRX has a straightforward royalty model with proven capital allocation and a forward PE of ~9.4; HALO trades at a depressed forward PE of ~6.6 despite expected 27% EPS CAGR through 2028, with a Keytruda lawsuit catalyst and a new delivery technology (Hypercon) to offset patent cliff risks.
Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with specific valuation metrics, business model analysis, and risk discussion; includes links to supporting news and a video. Reasonable contrarian value play.
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Hello everyone
I've been trimming some of my Micron lately and putting into two healthcare asset light high margin counter cyclical stocks - Royalty Pharma (RPRX) and Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO).
Now I bought most of Micron in 70 to 95 range and never i could've expected that it will outrun Nvidia and Google in that time. I thought it would be a reliable double digit growing pick for decade to come. So I placed it in my son's account along with other dividend paying reliable companies. And I still like the company it's just gotten to a point that the allocation grew so much in that portolio that I have to rebalance for risk management.
Royalty Pharma is a pretty established company with a very straightforward and efficient business model. They fund other pharma and biotech companies in exchange for royalties. Partners carry operational burden of the business. The risk boils down to picking the right R&D pipelines to fund. But management proved to be effective capital allocators, with multiple blockbuster drugs funded in the last decade. And the diversification between those revenue streams provide structural resilience that I am glad to pay for. PE of 26, Forward PE of 9.41.
Now, Halozyme, is more of a contrarian pick and it is trading at ridiculously low valuation against their projected growth. It is also asset light counter cyclical royalty business, but they get it by licensing their delivery technology ENHANZE. Currently they have 10 active partner drugs on the market. Technology allows to turn infusion drugs into shots, by increasing the drug absorption rate.
Management expects that company will grow their EPS through 2028 with CAGR of 27% with only existing drugs. They have another 13 drugs in the pipeline for ENHANZE and they recently acquired Eloktrofi to get another delivery technology Hypercon. This technology allows to put 4 to 5 times more active element per unit of volume. Those two technologies synergyze and can extend and expand the partnership possibilities for Halozyme.
These drugs also serve as a great boon to hospitals and pharma partners, not only patients. For hospitals it reduces the workload. For pharma, they get to extend their blockbuster drugs exclusivity period with this enhancement.
It seems that the deoressed valuation is explained by ENHANZE patent cliff in 2027 in US and 2029 in Europe. But royalties for existing and upcoming partner drugs will be paid regardless of the expiration date of the patent itself. And the new technology they acquired will have time to ramp up to substitute the revenue streams in future.
PE of 26. Forward PE of 6.6.
Also there is a chance that they will get a royalties on Keytruda, the biggest revenue driver for Merck. As company has won a preliminary injunction in Germany. If they get a settlement with Merck on that, it could meaningfully increase the future revenue for the company.
What do you think?
Link to YouTube video:https://youtu.be/MkthN05C9N4
Link to Halozyme Merck lawsuit news:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/halozyme-wins-preliminary-injunction-against-mercks-keytruda-sc-in-germany-302633457.html
Link to a good case for Royalty Pharma:https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/why-royalty-pharma-plc-rprx-000758597.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAAAi0vxRhYGcjHkF24AR0EIgCwXpZ2qi5Sv18H54XM895vn7Q1ihj8HSUe6xzrZOevc4rnl1Ur3BdZdqmM4VpX97MIZplZpL3holHPDc1x1M6bqUaxICI1TsNBJQOduRfa3yh2EyRg1hPklyervufhu3KvRbRk68cduu7ovPTNojI