Kaspi (KSPI): 50%+ ROE, 7x earnings… what’s the catch?
u/Sea-Possibility8778 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 02, 2026 at 23:04
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 9 comments
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Summary
The post analyzes Kaspi (KSPI), a Kazakhstan-based fintech/payments/marketplace super-app, highlighting ~50% ROE, 7x earnings, and strong user engagement (~77 transactions/active user/month).
The author presents a mixed thesis: potential undervalued compounder with ecosystem lock-in, but flagged risks include Kazakhstan concentration, regulatory headwinds, loss-making Turkey expansion, and slowing earnings growth.
Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with balanced bullish/bearish points, using financial data and third-party estimates; not pure speculation.
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Been digging into Kaspi (KSPI) – one of the more interesting EM “platform” plays out there.
Quick snapshot (FY 2025):
\- Revenue KZT 3.1T ($6–8B depending on source) +19% YoY (Yahoo Finance)
\- Net income KZT 1.1T ($2.1B) +10% YoY (Yahoo Finance)
\- ROE still absurdly high \~48–70% range depending on period (FinanceCharts)
\- \~77 transactions per active user/month (crazy engagement) (GlobeNewswire)
Business = payments + marketplace + fintech bundled into one app. Think local monopoly vibes:
\- Payments TPV +19% YoY
\- Marketplace revenue +23% YoY
\- Fintech revenue +20% YoY (Stock Titan)
Stock side:
\- Trades \~7x earnings in some estimates (stockchase.com)
\- Some fair value models around \~$107 vs \~$70s price (\~30–40% upside) (Simply Wall St)
What’s interesting:
\- Extremely high ROE business compounding at double digits
\- Strong ecosystem lock-in (super app, high frequency usage)
\- Still relatively cheap vs quality (if numbers are sustainable)
What’s not:
\- Kazakhstan concentration risk (basically the whole story)
\- Regulatory + rate environment already hitting margins
\- Turkey expansion currently loss-making (Stock Titan)
\- Growth slowing a bit (rev +19% but earnings only +10%)
Feels like one of those “too good to be true or just misunderstood EM compounder” setups.
Anyone here own it or have a strong bear case?