Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
u/BGID_to_the_moon ·
Reddit — r/StockMarket
· April 29, 2026 at 14:16
· ⬆ 60 pts
· 💬 50 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author questions why stocks remain near all-time highs despite oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields reaching war-time levels, which previously caused a 10% selloff.
Thesis: equities (especially small caps like IWM) are being artificially propped up, possibly for nefarious reasons (e.g., ahead of a SpaceX IPO), and will eventually correct as high costs and inflation take hold.
Quality assessment: speculative opinion with macro reasoning but lacks hard data or specific positions; more noise than rigorous DD.
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The entire reason stocks declined 10% during the war with Iran was the fear of an extended conflict that could lead to Hormuz being closed and oil prices being higher for longer. Stocks more than rebounded to new highs after a cease fire and the belief the US admin couldn't stomach a prolonged conflict and high oil prices.
Over the past few days, the very reason the market initially took a significant dump has mostly been confirmed. Hormuz is likely to be closed for longer than anyone expected back in March. Rising oil, combined with rising treasury yields due to expected inflation, have become a reality.
Yet stocks are mostly unmoved by this new reality. How's this possible? Are stocks really being artificially propped up until Spacex IPOs so that interested parties don't take a massive haircut? What could be the reason the market has all of a sudden chosen to ignore negative factors it once reacted violently to?
And before anyone says tech stocks have great earnings, IWM is still near ATH and it's full of profitless companies that are the most sensitive to high costs and high yields. These are the same stocks that took a massive dive in 2022 over high inflation and yields. Yet they're not behaving the same way as of 3 weeks ago.
IWM contains many profitless small-cap companies that are highly sensitive to rising oil (input costs) and rising yields (higher discount rates), yet it is near ATH – similar to the setup that crushed these stocks in 2022. The market’s current indifference to these negative macro factors represents a divergence that historically resolves with a sharp revaluation downward once the lag effect of higher costs hits earnings. Shorting IWM captures the expected mean-reversion as the underlying economic reality (high oil + high yields) eventually overwhelms the artificial support. Government spending or money-printing could sustain the rally; earnings season may surprise to the upside; the war premium may fade again.
This Reddit post, published April 29, 2026,
features u/BGID_to_the_moon
discussing IWM.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.