The Trump administration is expected to finalize the rescheduling of cannabis from 1 to 3 as soon as today causing cannabis stocks to rally

ZealotOfCannabis · 2026-04-22T17:10:14+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - Post reports the expected rescheduling of cannabis from Schedule I to III by the Trump administration, highlighting tax and medical benefits. - Author's thesis: This reform will reduce tax burdens (from ~70% to normal rates) and grant federal medical recognition, boosting cannabis stock valuations. - Quality assessment: Speculation based on news; not deep DD but includes reasoned implications. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === MSOS - LONG | confidence: 0.6 | sentiment: +0.7 Speaker: u/ZealotOfCannabis Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Cannabis rescheduling to Schedule III is expected, allowing business expense deductions and medical recognition. 2. THE BRIDGE: This improves profitability and legal standing for U.S. cannabis companies, driving ETF appreciation. 3. THE VERDICT: MSOS rallied 25% on news and may continue upward as rescheduling finalizes. 4. RISKS: Rescheduling delay or failure; structural industry headwinds remain. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - Tax burden reduction significant - Federal medical benefits recognition - ETF captures broad sector rally - News-driven volatility high - Policy execution uncertain GTBIF - LONG | confidence: 0.6 | sentiment: +0.7 Speaker: u/ZealotOfCannabis Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Rescheduling enables tax deductions for Green Thumb Industries, lowering effective tax rate. 2. THE BRIDGE: Improved net income enhances stock attractiveness amid sector rally. 3. THE VERDICT: GTBIF up over 20% on news, with further gains likely from policy shift. 4. RISKS: Company-specific operational issues; rescheduling may not materialize. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - Direct US cannabis exposure - Profitability boost from tax change - Stock surged on headline - Policy dependency high - Industry competition intense TCNNF - LONG | confidence: 0.6 | sentiment: +0.7 Speaker: u/ZealotOfCannabis Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Trulieve Cannabis Corp. benefits from rescheduling via tax savings and medical legitimacy. 2. THE BRIDGE: Fin

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Summary

Post reports the expected rescheduling of cannabis from Schedule I to III by the Trump administration, highlighting tax and medical benefits.
Author's thesis: This reform will reduce tax burdens (from ~70% to normal rates) and grant federal medical recognition, boosting cannabis stock valuations.
Quality assessment: Speculation based on news; not deep DD but includes reasoned implications.

Score 66

Comments 51

Upvote % 96%

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Per Axios: [https://www.axios.com/2026/04/22/trump-marijuana-rule-change](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/22/trump-marijuana-rule-change)

&gt;The Trump administration is expected to move to reclassify marijuana as soon as Wednesday, per an administration official familiar with the matter.

&gt;**Why it matters:** The move would make it easier to study medicinal applications of marijuana and could shore up support from influencers who support the research.

&gt;The move follows an executive order from the president last year to finish reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug, which is a years-long process.

&gt;**How it works:** Reclassifying marijuana eases U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration barriers to researching the drug's potential use cases.

&gt;It would not immediately legalize marijuana, nor would it affect the sentences of those incarcerated for possession.

This would conclude the rescheduling process that began under Joe Biden back in 2022 that has been slowly working its way through administrative channels.

If these reports are correct, this would be the most significant cannabis reform at the federal level in over 50 years. The main benefits of rescheduling would be that cannabis businesses would be able to deduct business expenses on their federal taxes allowing them to pay tax rates equivalent to any other law abiding business in the US. Currently these businesses often pay tax rates of over 70%, preventing many from ever becoming profitable.

This would also dramatically change how the federal government views cannabis, as schedule 3 would now mean the US government recognizes that it has medical benefits. This would likely lead to guidelines for a federal medical cannabis program as well as federal protections for medical cannabis users, such as exemptions from drug tests, etc

Cannabis stocks are up massively on this news, with the main US cannabis ETF $MSOS halting initially and is now up 25% on the day. Individual names like $GTBIF, $TCNNF, and $CURLF are up well over 20% as well

Ideas

u/ZealotOfCannabis Reddit r/stocks

Rescheduling enables tax deductions for Green Thumb Industries, lowering effective tax rate. Improved net income enhances stock attractiveness amid sector rally. GTBIF up over 20% on news, with further gains likely from policy shift. Company-specific operational issues; rescheduling may not materialize.

u/ZealotOfCannabis Reddit r/stocks

Trulieve Cannabis Corp. benefits from rescheduling via tax savings and medical legitimacy. Financial improvement fuels investor sentiment, amplifying price gains. TCNNF rose over 20% and may trend higher with policy implementation. Execution challenges; regulatory uncertainties persist.

u/ZealotOfCannabis Reddit r/stocks

Curaleaf Holdings gains from rescheduling through tax relief and federal recognition. Enhanced earnings potential drives stock revaluation amid sector optimism. CURLF up over 20% on news, with room for growth if policy enacted. Rescheduling delays; industry oversupply pressures.

u/ZealotOfCannabis Reddit r/stocks

Cannabis rescheduling to Schedule III is expected, allowing business expense deductions and medical recognition. This improves profitability and legal standing for U.S. cannabis companies, driving ETF appreciation. MSOS rallied 25% on news and may continue upward as rescheduling finalizes. Rescheduling delay or failure; structural industry headwinds remain.

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