Strong breakout on SPY

AI Summary

Author expects a post-Apr 6 SPY breakout to accelerate and favors long OTM SPY calls and UPRO as bullish expressions.

SPY — LONG This is a long SPY call option idea (underlying SPY). Author says the regime flipped to a strong uptrend on Apr 6 and expects the SPY breakout to accelerate, citing Kama-line slopes ramping up and strong large-buyer accumulation. He favors 30-45 delta OTM SPY calls because premium is cheap on a strong move and gamma change should be profitable. Main stated risk: a move down through the top Kama lines would signal reversal, and he avoids support levels because the setup is dynamic.

Any long spy calls, 30-45 delta, OTM on a strong move has cheap premium and the gamma change at certain points will be very profitable.

UPRO — LONG This is a long UPRO ETF idea, a levered product used to express the SPY breakout view. Author says UPRO or levered products are more stable than options with less upside, and are a great choice if you are busy and cannot monitor trades. The same rationale is the post-Apr 6 strong buy signal, ramping Kama slopes, and strong accumulation; risk is that the breakout reverses through the top Kama lines.

UPRO or levered products, more stable than options, less upside, but if you are busy and can't monitor trades, this is a great option

Score 15

Comments 18

Upvote % 74%

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I think the regime is changing from chop to a strong move up, peace is likely, and so I expect calls to perform well, interestingly VOL has started to creep up so it is likely people are hedging on this large move. VIX and UVXY are not fully correlated to the SPY rn.

Gold and silver exhibited similar behaviour, they behaved like growth equities, a lot of things do not make sense right now from a technical and quant perspective. there will likely be a lot of movement in the market, so great for options traders.

The regime filliped on Apr 6th with a strong buy signal, I expect this breakout to accelerate, If you look at the Kama lines the slope is ramping up, meaning that large buyers are starting to push the market up, accumulation is strong, this is a large move with buyers behind it.

On the lower level charts, the candles are hovering above the top Kama lines, watch for a move down through them, this would indicate a reversal of the strong breakout. No idea how long this will go on for but happy trading.

* Position Ideas: 
   * Any long spy calls, 30-45 delta, OTM on a strong move has cheap premium and the gamma change at certain points will be very profitable.
   * Spreads, if you want a cheaper net premium and more stable theta value, these are a good option. If you are a premium seller, and get a credit, you can wait for the short leg to get devalued on a adverse move, and when you see a reversal sell the short leg and ride a long position, this is a mean reverting trade I often do, it is hard to execute, and carries risk, but if you can double dip, great, go for it
   * UPRO or levered products, more stable than options, less upside, but if you are busy and can't monitor trades, this is a great option
   * TLDR, use stops, don't move them unless you need to, or use a dynamic stop, set them as tightly as your risk parmeters are, but once you catch a move, let it run for a bit.
   * I am not posting support levels because this is dynamic, I have no idea what the SPY will do a week from now, I use this to make probalistic bets, sometimes I am wrong, i do not trade with all my capital, set risk limits, use them, and do not chase trades when you are losing.
   * Finally, I appreciate you guys for reading my weird posts, I am a strange guy, I feel a sense of community here, thank you for taking the time to read this, and for folks who have commented in the past, I appreciate you.

These chart's are mine, and use some open source tools, I use them to trade. Here is the view, enjoy. This is open source so enjoy:

[https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PNVS2Itc/](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PNVS2Itc/)

Happy Thursday

Ideas

u/MilesDelta Reddit r/options

Long OTM SPY calls on accelerating breakout

This is a long SPY call option idea (underlying SPY). Author says the regime flipped to a strong uptrend on Apr 6 and expects the SPY breakout to accelerate, citing Kama-line slopes ramping up and strong large-buyer accumulation. He favors 30-45 delta OTM SPY calls because premium is cheap on a strong move and gamma change should be profitable. Main stated risk: a move down through the top Kama lines would signal reversal, and he avoids support levels because the setup is dynamic.

u/MilesDelta Reddit r/options

Long UPRO as less-monitored leveraged breakout play

This is a long UPRO ETF idea, a levered product used to express the SPY breakout view. Author says UPRO or levered products are more stable than options with less upside, and are a great choice if you are busy and cannot monitor trades. The same rationale is the post-Apr 6 strong buy signal, ramping Kama slopes, and strong accumulation; risk is that the breakout reverses through the top Kama lines.

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Ideas

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