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Been meaning to write this up properly for a while.
IONQ
I've been watching quantum computing for two years waiting for a reason to size up beyond a lottery ticket. This week gave me three in 48 hours: DARPA HARQ contract, Nvidia releasing open-source quantum AI models, and IonQ actually demonstrating that two independent quantum systems can be linked together (photonic interconnect). That last one matters because the whole "quantum advantage" thesis has always been bottlenecked by scale and this is the first real signal that networked quantum architecture works.
Fundamentals held up too. Revenue 3x'd year-over-year to $130M. $370M backlog. Earnings May 6. 12 analysts with Strong Buy consensus and \~$67-69 average target vs. \~$45 current price.
UPST + PGY
I'm grouping these because they're both AI lending plays that got absolutely wrecked in early 2026, and both look compelling to me for different reasons.
Upstart: The AI model now has 2,500+ data points trained on 50M+ repayment events. 91% of loans are fully automated. They hit GAAP profitability last year ($53.6M net income, swung from a $128.5M loss). Now they're applying for a national bank charter to start accepting deposits if that plays out, the business model changes completely. Stock is still down \~40% YTD. Earnings May 5.
Pagaya: Trading at $13-14 with a $33 price target from Benchmark and $22 from Citizens. Revenue grew 26% to $1.3B last year. Adjusted EBITDA up 76% to $371M. They just closed a $600M AAA rated personal loan ABS transaction. The DCF models suggest this is trading at a massive discount to intrinsic value. Honestly the name just doesn't have the retail hype and I think that's why it's cheap.
RDDT
Reddit is the only social media platform that owns 20 years of authentic, self-organized community knowledge. Every major AI company needs training data and Reddit is a direct line to that. Data licensing revenue is real and growing. The ad business is early relative to where Facebook was at a similar stage in its monetization timeline. At $157, it's down significantly from its $282 high and the fundamentals haven't gotten worse just sentiment has.
HOOD
The catalyst I didn't fully model before: the SEC removing the $25K PDT rule. That's massive for Robinhood specifically. Their user base is exactly the retail traders who were capped by that requirement. Beyond that: Trump Accounts (seeded federal savings accounts for every child born 2025-2028) with Robinhood as the selected infrastructure provider. 24-hour trading with \~1,000 symbols. $350M annualized revenue from prediction markets. Bernstein projects prediction market volumes at $1T by 2030 and called HOOD one of the early leaders.
COIN
Simple thesis: regulatory environment is more favorable than any time in the last 5 years. Coinbase is the most liquid, most compliant, most institutionally trusted crypto exchange in the US. They're expanding into prediction markets via Kalshi and into tokenized assets in Europe. Every time crypto has a real bull leg, COIN amplifies it. Stock is at $197, well off the $444 high. Probably mid-cycle here.
BMNR
This one's unusual. Bitmine started as a Bitcoin miner and pivoted to an Ethereum treasury strategy the MicroStrategy model, but for ETH. They now hold 4.875M ETH (4% of total supply). They're generating $212M/year in annualized staking revenue just from staked positions, which is income BTC holders don't get. NYSE uplisted April 9. $4B buyback authorized. Backed institutionally by ARK, Founders Fund, Pantera, Galaxy.
The bear case is obviously ETH price risk and single-asset concentration. The bull case is ETH recovering, staking yield compounding, and BMNR trading closer to NAV rather than the discount it currently sits at.
Not a financial advisor. This is just my reasoning. Happy to discuss any of these in the comments.