While everyone is focussing on the strait, watch out for the Stagflation narrative

Everyone's watching the Strait of Hormuz and yeah, energy supply risk is real. But markets price the obvious fast. What's actually moving under the radar right now is the stagflation narrative. Not as a hot take, as a measurable shift in sentiment. While most fear narratives have cooled this week, stagflation has quietly made one of the bigger jumps. The setup isn't complicated. Tariff pressure on costs + softening growth = not great for anyone positioned around a clean Fed pivot. And fed\_pivot sentiment has barely budged, which tells you the market hasn't really reconciled this yet. Stagflation doesn't need to show up in a CPI print to matter. It just needs to be believed. By the time consensus catches up, the rotation's usually already done. Watching commodities, TIPS, anything with real pricing power. Less enthusiastic about long duration here. Not advice, just where my head's at.