The reason the market is going up is because most people don’t think this is going to matter in 5+ years. And no, that’s not irrational.
u/UsernameIWontRegret ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· April 13, 2026 at 20:36
· ⬆ 137 pts
· 💬 120 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The post argues that the stock market's resilience amidst geopolitical tension (referred to as the "Iran fiasco") is rational because investors with long-term horizons (10-30 years) are buying, believing the event will be irrelevant in 5+ years.
The author uses the 2022 market drop and subsequent strong recovery following Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a historical precedent to support this view.
Quality assessment: Speculation. This is a market timing/narrative-based opinion using a single historical analogy, not well-researched due diligence.
Score137
Comments120
Upvote %72%
▶ Full Post Text
So many people are in disbelief that the market is rebounding. Everyone needs to remember that the stock market is NOT a reflection of current economic conditions. It’s is not even a reflection of near term economic conditions. Most retail and institutional buying is from people with long term, 10/20/30 year time horizons. And they’re buying because they don’t believe this Iran fiasco will matter in a few years.
Does anyone remember that the stock market fell 20% and entered a bear market in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine? Russia produced 12% of the world’s oil and 30% of Europe’s oil and suddenly it became toxic.
The market is currently 47% above what the top was BEFORE that bear market. In 4 short years literally none of it mattered, to the point where people forget it even happened.
It’s not stupid to be buying stocks now.
The author states long-term investors are buying because they believe current geopolitical events will not matter in 5+ years, citing the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war bear market as a precedent that ultimately did not prevent a 47%+ rally. This suggests the current dip is a buying opportunity for long-term investors, as the market is forward-looking and discounts short-term crises. The core argument is that any sell-off based on the "Iran fiasco" is irrational for long-term capital, making broad market exposure attractive. The event could escalate with longer-term economic consequences (e.g., sustained oil shock); other macro factors like persistent inflation and Fed policy could dominate the 1-2 year horizon, as noted in comments.
This Reddit post, published April 13, 2026,
features u/UsernameIWontRegret
discussing SPY.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.