They are blockading 20% of the worlds oil supply.... my thesis from 18 days is coming true
u/MilesDelta ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· April 12, 2026 at 19:43
· ⬆ 341 pts
· 💬 297 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author argues that an active blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will cause an oil price shock, triggering stagflation and a severe broader market crash akin to 2008.
The author is heavily bearish on the broader market, holding short-dated SPY puts, and surprisingly holds XLE puts despite predicting oil will "go to the moon."
Quality assessment: Speculative macro doom-posting. The thesis relies on a geopolitical catalyst, but the trade execution (very short-dated options) and contradictory positions (XLE puts during an oil spike) reflect typical retail noise.
Score341
Comments297
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Yeah, so the straight of Hormuz is under active blockade. Oil tankers have a max speed of a
fast cycle, the last tankers will start arriving shortly, and Oil is going to go to the moon.
As for what happens to the SPY, it is an elevator ride down likely, the market will get Viet Konged nothing is priced in.
Translation: We are cooked, your calls are cooked, our boy vloker is laughing so hard his dentures shot out.
This is a classic stagflation play, high energy prices, a weak economy, debt bubbles, private credit funds closing doors, this sounds a lot like 2008, you can't print your way out of this without becoming 1930's Germany.
"This is going to be a beautiful quarter for put holders and an extinction-level event for anyone who bought calls because "it already priced in bro." from 18 days agoNothing is priced in. Nothing has ever been priced in. The market prices things in the same way I read terms and conditions."
A hamster beat this subreddit and you guys made him king for a day, I am not celebrating, this means we are all cooked.
Have a good weekend
Positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, and emotional damage, economic damage, and an escape plan.
Post from 18 days ago:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1s3az5u/every\_ceo\_is\_about\_to\_say\_unexpected\_headwinds\_47/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1s3az5u/every_ceo_is_about_to_say_unexpected_headwinds_47/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
The Strait of Hormuz is reportedly under an active blockade, threatening 20% of the world's oil supply. A massive spike in oil prices will trigger stagflation, exacerbating a weak economy and debt bubbles, causing a severe market correction. Buy SPY puts to profit from an imminent, unpriced market crash. Central banks intervene with liquidity ("money printer"), or the blockade is resolved quickly, causing the market to rally.