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This has been one of the stranger weeks for options positioning in a while.
Wednesday: ceasefire, oil down 18%, IV on everything spiked then immediately started collapsing as the relief trade took hold. Thursday: Hormuz re-closes, oil bounces, some of that IV came back. Today: CPI print.
The question I'm sitting with is whether there's still enough volatility premium left in today's options to make selling worthwhile, or whether the market has already normalized enough that buying for a directional play makes more sense.
FOMC minutes confirmed one cut this year. GDP at 0.5% yesterday was weak. If CPI comes in hot, the stagflation trade gets a bid and things could move hard. If it misses, the relief rally has legs.
What's your read on the vol setup going into this print? Are you selling the remaining premium, buying for direction, or just staying flat through the number?