Economic Implications of Ceasefire Uncertainty and Today’s Data Releases

Treasury yields stabilized this morning while equity markets opened slightly lower, largely reflecting uncertainty around the durability of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. Reports of intermittent fighting and only a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence risk sentiment. From a macro perspective, two key data points hit today: * The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for February came in exactly in line with expectations. * U.S. Q4 GDP was revised downward. **Open question for the community:** How meaningful are these geopolitical disruptions for short‑term inflation expectations or supply‑chain‑related price pressures?