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Oil was at $117 this morning. Two-week ceasefire announced. Oil now below $94.
For options traders — today is a pretty clean example of the vol crush problem on geopolitical events.
If you bought puts on oil or calls on gold or equities in anticipation of a resolution, and you got the direction right, you still had to deal with whatever IV was priced in before the announcement. Once the news hit and the "uncertainty" collapsed, that premium came out fast.
On the flip side, anyone who sold elevated volatility into the deadline probably had a good day — as long as they sized correctly and didn't get caught by the initial move.
The tricky part with events like this is that the IV can stay elevated even after a "resolution" if traders don't fully believe the resolution is durable. Analysts are pointing out that two weeks of ceasefire doesn't guarantee Hormuz reopens — so the structural uncertainty hasn't fully gone away.
Do you find that geopolitical vol events tend to crush too fast, or does the market usually hold a reasonable risk premium even after the initial headline?