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Trump has been really obvious with his plans with Iran. Right before the war started, there were so many military personnel; it was obvious that he would launch an air strike. That's when I bought GUSH, XLE, and a small ($1k) position on USO.
Market for the past week was thinking this war would end soon but doesn't realize both parties are far apart, so when we saw word that a ceasefire would be made, man, I loaded the boat even more. Media was hyping the fact Trump will announce a ceasefire when he addresses the nation.
It was obvious it was a lie if you saw the flow: large OTM calls were being purchased, specifically $60–65 calls expiring next month for XLE and $50 for GUSH. Once Trump takes Kharg Island, all hell will break loose.
Gas fields will be hit in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and maybe Qatar. And many US troops will suffer casualties.
Now, how can we make money from this? If you're in oil, just hold; we could see it at 150 a barrel in 2 weeks. If not, wait till Trump speaks; he will say some bullish news, like negotiations working well and oil stocks might dip. I say buy the dip at that point.
Now once Kharg Island is taken, I will be watching SCO; it's an oil short ETF. When oil drops, it goes up. Pre-war, it was trading at $25-30 a share; it's at $8 now and might drop to $4. That's when I load the boat with 2027-2028 calls.
I did that back when GUSH was trading at $12. When GAAS's price hit its peak, the stock was at $250 a share. This is pretty much a repeat.
I don't think the price will drop right away for oil, but I do believe Trump might pump it in a way that oil will drop a lot quicker, maybe releasing more reserves, offering more permits, etc.
So to summarize, hold oil if you're still holding; if not, buy on the dip. Once Kharg Island is taken and oil hits above $150 a barrel, look at calls for SCO 2027-2028 hopefully when the stock is below 5$.
current position gush 50c jan 2027
xle 60c 2027
uso 135 april 17
Not financial advice, as always.