Hormuz, effects on supply lines and the nature of attrition war

I see plenty of misunderatandings about the nature of war and its effects. Hormuz crisis not only hit oil. All the effects of Hormuz blockade are passing through the supply chain and will affect the dynamics of companies and consumers. * Fertilizer going up. US farners do not have the leverage to pass price increase to consumer, so they are selling their crops to biofuel companies to feed data centers. In 2027 Americans will be competing with AI for food. Contracts are being signed at this very moment. * Helium and LNG are needed to make microchips in Taiwan. Expect unaffordable hardware and electronics. * Sulfur is needed for military grade explosives. Nearly half of sulfur passes through Hormuz. US military complex will be hurt by this. * Helium is needed for missile systems. US military complex will be hurt by this. * Aluminium also will be affected, from drink tin cans to construction and aerospace. * Petrochemical products like plastics will be affected. But not just plastics. Many other daily use products will be hurt. Premium feedsstock from the gulf will affect diesel, aviation fuel. * Steel and iron ore also will be hurt. * If crisis manage to hit Singapore, Rotterdam and Fujairah, ships will run out of fuel, ship delivery will not take place, there will be empty shelves in US. All these crisis are passing through the supply lines. * Ships take time to reach destination. * Production lines have lead times. * Delivery takes time. So we will witness the delayed effects of this crisis as soon as they pass through supply lines. The difference with 1970's oil crisis is that that crisis had 10% oil production reduction for a few weeks. Today we have actual infrastructure (production capacity) being destroyed. It will take 5 to 10 years to rebuild after the war ends. Other expected moves from players? * US allies divesting in US bonds to have dollars to buy oil and other raw materials. Who will buy US bonds? This year 10 trillion need to be refinanced. * Even if big tech secure energy deals, hardware will become unaffordable. What will happen to AI bubble? * Iran offering oil paid with yuan and euro. End of petro dollar? Dedollarization? What will happen to US denominated derivatives? * Companies going IPO need a positive investment atmosphere. Will we see market manipulation and lies to keep an exuberant investment atmosphere? Even if war ended right now, the effects in the supply lines would continue. They will not stop. Under middle east culture grievances are settled in 2 ways. Either eye for an eye against the perpetrator, or a generous monetary reparation for the families of the victims. They do not negotiate in western terms. This is not in their culture. Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani were moderates. Those who took power were former seasoned war veterans from Iran-Iraq 8 year war. Expect hardliners. War veterans of any nation are hard to intimidate, especially those who saw real war. So these fairy tales of negotiations are not likely to be credible. They will end the war when grievances are settled, and their culture is quite stubborn and resistant to pain. This war was supposed to last 48 hours, like in Venezuela. It did not go as planned. So now improvisation is the new physical strategy. Wars are physical games. They are decided physically, not via narratives. Iran is playing war of attrition, which do not follow conventional wisdom. So investors need to unlearn what Hollywood movies taught about war. Attrition war is a whole other game. It is not the typical Risk area control board game. War affairs do not follow the rules of business. Managing war as if it was a business, does not work. If you want a crash course about war, play Starcraft. It will not make you an expert, but will deliver important lessons about what not to do in a war.