Is the market being way too optimistic about the war? The "buffer" is running out.

Honestly, the market reaction to the war so far feels way too mild. It’s like everyone is just betting on this being a short-term thing, but I think we’re ignoring the real cliff: the exhaustion of reserves. Right now, we’re basically coasting on whatever was already in the pipes. But those buffers aren’t infinite. If this drags on for another 3 or 4 months, the real problems start because the reserves (oil, gas, components) will be gone. At that point, companies and countries are going to be forced to buy at these insane spot prices just to keep going, and that’s when the margins will truly collapse, most of these strategic reserves are only meant to last maybe 90 days. Same goes for the "just-in-time" manufacturing. I’m looking at large companies and they don't keep massive warehouses of every single part. They have maybe a few months of buffer for things like neon or specific metals. Once that one small link in the chain is empty, the whole production line stops. I feel like we’re in that "calm before the storm" phase where the S&P 500 is just waiting to see if it ends quickly. If it doesn't, and we hit that 90-day mark without a resolution, the depletion of these stocks is going to hit way harder than the initial news did.