No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
The author describes a closed trade and explicitly labels it as a methodology watch rather than an open investment thesis.
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Yesterday I posted that $NKE options looked underpriced going into earnings.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1s8wuki/nikes\_nke\_earnings\_announcement\_after\_the\_close/](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1s8wuki/nikes_nke_earnings_announcement_after_the_close/)
Here’s what actually happened.
$NKE reported after the bell and beat, but the market didn't like the fundamentals and traded off overnight. Good news so far for my long vol position.
However, my approach is to wait until price discovery after the bell, so even though the stock traded lower by 5 pts/\~9.6%, I waited until the open and the market stabilized -10%. The market was pricing in an 8.2% move, so my long IC trade (47.5/48.5/54/56) was ITM by a point while IV crushed from 115% to 34%. I closed by opening debit trade of $0.41 for $0.79, generating a $0.38/93% profit on capital at risk. My 1% portfolio allocation resulted in a realized 93 bp profit.
$NKE just happened to continue trading lower and would be sitting on an even fatter profit another 20%). However, my game is to play the event, which is this case paid off. As they say... bulls, bears, and pigs!
Most folks on here play options from the short side to mine theta. That works until it doesn't. I prefer to take what the market is giving me. In this case, it was a long vol/short theta setup that worked.