Built a TACO tracker inside my trading dashboard because TA is useless when the president is live-posting about bombing Iran

neo-futurism · 2026-03-28T15:46:24+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post describes a personal tool (TACO tracker) built to monitor U.S. political and geopolitical events (specifically Trump-related activity) that cause sudden market volatility, which the author's ML-based intraday system cannot predict. - The author's thesis is that during periods of high "Trump Activity & Conflict Outlook," avoiding market entries, particularly in SPY options, prevents losses from gap moves driven by non-fundamental news. - Quality assessment: This is a pragmatic case study/anecdote based on personal trading experience. It is not formal due diligence but a logical, event-driven risk management approach shared as an idea. === SENTIMENT === NEUTRAL === TRADE IDEAS === SPY - AVOID | confidence: 0.9 | sentiment: -0.3 Speaker: u/neo-futurism Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The author's ML system for intraday SPY options incurs losses during sudden market gaps caused by presidential social media posts, executive orders, or geopolitical events. 2. THE BRIDGE: By monitoring a suite of real-time political/geopolitical data sources (TACO), the author identifies periods of elevated event risk and avoids entering new positions until volatility subsides. 3. THE VERDICT: The implied trade idea is to temporarily avoid trading SPY (or its derivatives) when the TACO signal indicates high political activity, as a defensive risk-management tactic. 4. RISKS: The signal may generate false positives (market doesn't react) or cause missed opportunities; political news may become priced in more efficiently over time. Timeframe: short-term (intraday) Key Points: - Avoid SPY trades on high Trump activity - Event risk gaps market 1-2% - Use political data for defense - Sit out until dust settles No actionable trade ideas in this post.

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The post describes a personal tool (TACO tracker) built to monitor U.S. political and geopolitical events (specifically Trump-related activity) that cause sudden market volatility, which the author's ML-based intraday system cannot predict.
The author's thesis is that during periods of high "Trump Activity & Conflict Outlook," avoiding market entries, particularly in SPY options, prevents losses from gap moves driven by non-fundamental news.
Quality assessment: This is a pragmatic case study/anecdote based on personal trading experience. It is not formal due diligence but a logical, event-driven risk management approach shared as an idea.

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