u/CanadianAbroad7 ·
Reddit — r/StockMarket
· March 27, 2026 at 22:50
· ⬆ 62 pts
· 💬 73 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The author is debating a friend's prediction of an imminent, severe market crash driven by war and energy disruptions.
The author's thesis is that an additional 12% drop in the S&P 500 would be historically disproportionate compared to past geopolitical events like 9/11.
Quality assessment: Speculation based on high-level historical comparisons rather than deep quantitative due diligence.
Score62
Comments73
Upvote %85%
▶ Full Post Text
I just sent this in response to my friend stating that he believes another dip, like last years, if not worse, is around the corner. What do you guys think?
“We shall see. It would take another 12% drop in SPY to equate to how much it dropped last year, it’s already down 8% this month and seems to be beginning to price in worst case scenarios like boots on the ground and continued oil/energy disruption. Another 12% drop (20% broad market decline in total) would be a very big deal and a very disproportionate drop compared to market declines caused by wars, oil disruption and inflation in the past. The market didn’t even drop that much following 9/11 and the outbreak of the war in Afghanistan, and that was also amidst the dot com bubble crash.
But what do I know. Anything is possible. If the market drops another 12% over this war I’d be clutching my pearls though.”
SPY is already down 8% this month and is actively pricing in worst-case scenarios like war and oil disruptions. Historical precedents (such as 9/11 and the Afghanistan war) show that markets typically do not drop a full 20% solely on geopolitical conflict, suggesting limited further downside. Watch SPY for stabilization, as the author believes a further 12% drop is highly unlikely and disproportionate. Unforeseen severe escalations ("boots on the ground") or compounding macroeconomic failures could still trigger the drop.
This Reddit post, published March 27, 2026,
features u/CanadianAbroad7
discussing SPY.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.