The S&P 500 is 50 day Moving Average is now below the 100 day Moving Average
u/logicalnutty ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· March 27, 2026 at 19:05
· ⬆ 522 pts
· 💬 148 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post highlights the S&P 500's 50-day Moving Average crossing below its 100-day Moving Average.
The author's thesis is that this technical event has historically preceded significant short-term market declines, suggesting a bearish signal.
Quality assessment: Speculation based on selective historical analogies, lacking statistical rigor, context, or consideration of broader market conditions.
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Comments148
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Here are the last few times this happened:
March 19, 2025: the market fell a further 15% over the next 3 weeks
October 17, 2023: the market fell a further 6% over the next week
February 24, 2022: the S&P 500 fell a further 15% over the next 4 months, followed by a brief 19% rally over 2 months, followed by another 19% drop over the next 2 months
March 19, 2020: the market fell 11% over the next few days marking the Covid bottom
November 14, 2018: the S&P 500 fell a further 14% over the next month and a half
April 13, 2018: the market fell 3% over the next 3 weeks
February 1, 2016: the S&P 500 fell another 7% over the next two weeks
Is this a sign of a stronger move to the downside?
Historical data shows S&P 500 declines of 3-15% following 50-day/100-day MA death crosses in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2025. This crossover is a widely watched bearish technical signal, implying momentum shift and potential for a repeat of historical downturns. The pattern suggests a high probability of a near-term market drop, creating a short opportunity. History may not repeat; the signal could be a false positive; the market may have already priced in the weakness; a swift reversal is possible.
This Reddit post, published March 27, 2026,
features u/logicalnutty
discussing SPY.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.