What is the over/under on a weekend Truth Social post from Trump announcing a "breakthrough", leading to an S&P rise?
u/ub3rm3nsch ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· March 27, 2026 at 13:32
· ⬆ 95 pts
· 💬 54 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post speculates on whether a weekend Truth Social post from Donald Trump claiming a geopolitical breakthrough could artificially boost the S&P 500, given rising oil prices and Middle East tensions.
The author's thesis is that such market-moving posts may have lost credibility due to inconsistencies and escalating real-world conflicts, questioning if buying S&P calls based on them remains profitable.
Quality assessment: This is speculation, not well-researched DD. The author cites news links but offers no data analysis, focusing on rhetorical questioning.
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Given WTI futures are approaching $100 (seems to me to be Trump's Truth Social trigger), and the S&P is falling, what are the odds that Trump reveals a "negotiation breakthrough" and "imminent end to hositilities" this weekend that Iran subsequently denies?
Ah, and it looks like [Israel has pledged to intensify strikes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/27/iran-war-live-updates-trump-negotiations-bombing-hormuz-energy-oil-prices-middle-east), and Iran has [announced the closure of Hormuz to the US, Israel and their allies AGAIN](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3348177/iran-says-hormuz-closed-shipping-and-enemy-ports), despite Trump claiming the US and Iran are exchanging love letters in the background, and despite the complete inconsistency with being expected to believe that the US has a "secret man on the inside", and that the US would announce that secret to the whole world and the IRGC.
Are we still in a world where Monday Truth Social driven S&P calls are a good buy, or has the boy cried wolf too many times?