u/AdamN ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· March 23, 2026 at 15:45
· ⬆ 16 pts
· 💬 38 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author is debating whether to sell their ASML position after a 40% gain, noting the stock appears fully valued.
They are weighing the limited perceived upside and risk of a 10% correction against the immediate 10% portfolio hit from capital gains taxes.
Quality assessment: Discussion/Noise. The post lacks fundamental DD and is primarily asking for portfolio management and tax-strategy mental models.
Score16
Comments38
Upvote %86%
▶ Full Post Text
How do people think about investments that may be fully valued. I'm a firm believer in ASML but the price now is quite high. That's good for me because I have a 40% gain. However if I sell I instantly lose 10% of my holding for capital gains taxes (.25 \* .40 = 0.1 ).
Alternatively I can keep it invested (along with that 10%) and let it ride but I'm not convinced that there's much upside anymore and that the odds of a 10% correction that endures for a year or more are material.
Anybody have a good mental model here? ASML is 10% of my portfolio and I'd rather sell or hold (selling half doesn't really seem like a move with conviction).
ASML has experienced a massive run-up, giving the author a 40% gain, and now appears fully valued. Because the stock is fully priced, the probability of a 10%+ enduring correction is material, and further upside is limited. It may be prudent to sell and realize gains, even if it triggers a capital gains tax event. The stock continues to compound at a high rate, making the tax payment an unnecessary drag on returns.