ASML has experienced a massive run-up, giving the author a 40% gain, and now appears fully valued. Because the stock is fully priced, the probability of a 10%+ enduring correction is material, and further upside is limited. It may be prudent to sell and realize gains, even if it triggers a capital gains tax event. The stock continues to compound at a high rate, making the tax payment an unnecessary drag on returns.
ASML
HIGH
Mar 23, 15:45
Key Points
['Stock is up 40% for the author.', 'Valuation appears stretched/fully valued.', 'Material risk of a 10%+ enduring correction.', 'Capital gains tax creates friction for selling.', 'Upside appears limited from current levels.']
March 23, 2026 at 15:45