If 35x earnings felt wild for Costco, how are we supposed to feel about 50x?
u/JR-FlowCapGroup ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· March 22, 2026 at 20:20
· ⬆ 38 pts
· 💬 33 comments
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I like to give some sort of knowledge or education but... I was checking into Costco's fundamentals and compared with their historical data and since 2024, Costco's stock price is just out of whack.
1. 10% EPS growth for 3 years.
2. Exit at 35x PE (historical mean is 30x and a mature business).
Result: -10% CAGR.
Even if we look at the operating free cash flow which would grow at a 5% pace and an historical mean of 25x, again a negative return of 15%.
If we calculate owners earnings with a 5% growth rate than we become a market cap of $176b vs a current market cap of $431b.
I mean, once again, some valuations in the stock market are just madness. This proves that the current irrationality is overblown. Businesses that are investing in AI with double the growth rate of Costco are trading at historical lows. No matter if those businesses are largely exposed or not.
Crazy times. DO you feel me that I'm kind of thrilled to see this unfold in the future? I mean, there will be people who will lose a lot of money and on the other side, there will be people who will make a lot of money. Which end do you want to be?