Backtesting every put combination between March 2022 - Mar 2026
u/New-Ad4890 ·
Reddit — r/thetagang
· March 21, 2026 at 16:44
· ⬆ 28 pts
· 💬 10 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
No analysis available.
Score28
Comments10
Upvote %95%
▶ Full Post Text
New to Thetagang and have been trying out the wheel on QQQ this year.
In trying to get a better understanding of what works, I pulled 4 years of options chains and stock price for QQQ and vibe-coded scripts to backtest combinations of strike price and DTE. The dataset is 3/15/22 to 3/13/26.
The rules were to sell a put and wait until expiration. If shares were assigned, hold until they recover to strike. If shares not assigned, sell a new put the next day.
In that span, QQQ started at $321.40 and rose to $593.69. The total return on 100 shares of buy and hold would be $27,229, and the best combination was $6 strike + 16 DTE for a $32,193 premium. That was an outlier, though. The majority of them did not beat the market (none of them do after taxes).
If there's interest, I'm happy to share more data (# of trades, win rate, etc). I'm ingesting an additional 4 years of data now and will run this again. After that, I'll be testing more advanced strategies rather than a simple strike/dte combo on a schedule. The end goal is an ML model to predict when and what to sell.