J.P. Morgan, 1 day before the war started: "we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions"

[https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices) Probably the worst prediction of 2026 so far Article posted on 27th of February (1 day before the war started): >**Oil price forecast: A bearish outlook for Brent in 2026** \[...\] >Despite a recent spike in oil prices, J.P. Morgan Global Research expects to see Brent crude averaging around $60/bbl in 2026. \[...\] >More recently, markets have turned bullish on oil prices in anticipation that the U.S. will take military action against Iran, with Brent trading around $10/bbl above fair value in mid-February. “But given elevated inflation and this year’s midterm elections in the U.S., we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions. If military action does occur, we expect it to be targeted, avoiding Iran’s oil production and export infrastructure,” Kaneva said. “With the region’s proximity to major energy chokepoints, brief, geopolitically driven crude rallies are likely to continue, but these should eventually subside, leaving soft underlying global market fundamentals.” \[...\]