PCE index with Headline YOY edged lower than expected with Core (excludes food and energy) edged higher.

The 12-month rate of inflation measured by PCE edged lower to 2.8% from 2.9%. The PCE index MoM rose 0.3% in January and matched the Wall Street forecast. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.1% over the 12 months ended in January. The core rate of inflation rose by 0.4% in line with expectations. The core rate strips out volatile food and energy prices and is seen as the best predictor of future inflation. U.S. consumer spending increased by 0.4%, slightly more than the 0.3% expected by the economists polled by Reuters for January. Higher oil prices could boost inflation in the upcoming months. **Headline YoY:** \+2.8% vs. +2.9% expected **Headline MoM:** \+0.3%, in line with expectations **Core YoY:** \+3.1 vs. +2.9% to 3.0% expected **Core MoM:** \+0.4%, in line with expectations [https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2026](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2026)