Tesla delivery slide may stretch to third year, some fear, as cash burn looms

Tesla is facing a potential third straight year of declining EV deliveries, as reported by Reuters, indicating weakening demand and growing competitive pressure. Falling deliveries will likely lead to lower revenue, shrinking profit margins, and increased cash burn, which could cause the stock price to re-rate downwards as investors question the company's growth narrative. The negative outlook for Tesla's core auto business, coupled with the high-cost, uncertain pivot to robotaxis, presents a compelling short opportunity based on deteriorating fundamentals. Any positive announcement regarding FSD/robotaxi progress, unexpected delivery beats, or a broader market rally could cause a significant short squeeze, as has happened historically.

Multiple commenters note anecdotally that they are seeing more Rivian vehicles on the road and are personally planning to switch from Tesla to Rivian. This suggests Rivian is successfully capturing market share from Tesla, particularly among former enthusiasts, which could translate to stronger-than-expected sales and delivery numbers for Rivian. As Tesla's brand appeal wanes for some consumers, Rivian stands to benefit directly, making it a potential long trade based on capturing disillusioned Tesla customers. Rivian is still a smaller, less profitable company facing significant production scaling and cash burn challenges. The anecdotal evidence may not reflect broader market trends.