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I wanted to share an opinion about the cyber security sector stocks CRWD , ZS , RBRK, and NET
The best performing factor in the stock market is momentum. With that said , it looks to me like the response from the cybersecurity group is like it’s about to be swept up in the momentum trade.
I sold 6 naked puts on RBRK , 2 naked NET puts and a naked CRWD put. I also have long shares on CRWD, NET and RBRK. Because I believe the stocks are going higher : AI is a major usage tailwind for most stocks in this group. >80% of enterprise breaches aren’t even malware based so Claude provides no real displacement of use-case.
Global conflict is also a tailwind, as is the fast growing cybersecurity TAM.
I just installed cloudflare one/WARP, (zero-trust) from NET and instantly realized the value. It’s available to home and enterprise customers.
I was a Crowd Strike customer; one thing people don’t realize, is that it’s not about just stopping breaches, it’s that they partner with customers for crisis response if a breach actually does occur . Their network effect is such an asset, as JB puts it “you’d have to be insane to be a CRWD customer and go look for another vendor to save on the cybersecurity budget” as evidenced by their ARR.
IMO if you are valuing cybersecurity stocks on P/S , or even worse , P/E, and I concluding the valuation is too high.. I highly suggest looking at other metrics, such as CFO CAGR, TAM CAGR, EV/ARR, LTV:CAC , FCF yield, ect.
Maybe this post will age like the wine I used to make in white-collar prison , but from my analysis,,there is no group of stocks that’s a better buy at the specific moment , imo. All bullish factors are aligned and the market is only starting to pile in.