The space rug is going to get pulled with SpaceX

Marko-2091 · 2026-03-09T10:26:05+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The author speculates that SpaceX is orchestrating a "rug pull" on the market by seeking inclusion in the S&P 500 to gain exit liquidity from passive index funds at a high valuation. - The author's central thesis is that SpaceX might use its recent acquisitions of Echostar's (SATS) spectrum, combined with SATS's controversial recent inclusion in the S&P 500, to engineer a merger or similar maneuver to get SpaceX listed in the index without meeting the standard profitability criteria. - Quality assessment: This is highly speculative "conspiracy theory" as stated by the author, based on connecting disparate public events (SATS index inclusion, SpaceX spectrum purchases) rather than on direct evidence or deep financial analysis. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === TICKER - DIRECTION | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: -0.70 Speaker: u/Marko-2091 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The author believes SpaceX is seeking S&P 500 inclusion to provide "exit liquidity" for insiders at an "insane valuation," implying the company is overvalued and the move is a setup for a "rug pull." 2. THE BRIDGE: If SpaceX successfully enters the S&P 500 via a controversial method (e.g., merging with SATS), it would trigger massive forced buying from index funds. The author implies this event would be the peak, after which the stock's value would not be sustainable, harming the passive investors who were forced to buy. 3. THE VERDICT: The author is fundamentally bearish on the long-term value of SpaceX post-IPO/index inclusion, viewing the entire process as a scheme to offload shares onto the public market at an inflated price. This implies a short position would be appropriate if/when the stock becomes publicly tradable. 4. RISKS: SpaceX could prove to be highly profitable and its valuation justified, continuing its growth trajectory post-IPO. Elon Musk has a history of proving short-sellers wrong. The proposed merger/inclusion mechanism is purely speculative. Timeframe: long-te

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Summary

The author speculates that SpaceX is orchestrating a "rug pull" on the market by seeking inclusion in the S&P 500 to gain exit liquidity from passive index funds at a high valuation.
The author's central thesis is that SpaceX might use its recent acquisitions of Echostar's (SATS) spectrum, combined with SATS's controversial recent inclusion in the S&P 500, to engineer a merger or similar maneuver to get SpaceX listed in the index without meeting the standard profitability criteria.
Quality assessment: This is highly speculative "conspiracy theory" as stated by the author, based on connecting disparate public events (SATS index inclusion, SpaceX spectrum purchases) rather than on direct evidence or deep financial analysis.

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Put your tinfoil hat on because I thought about a conspiracy theory.

It has been mentioned that SpaceX is looking to be included in index funds (i.e., looking for exit liquidity on pension funds)

[https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/spacex-seeks-early-index-entry-as-it-prepares-massive-ipo-8445ed59](https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/spacex-seeks-early-index-entry-as-it-prepares-massive-ipo-8445ed59)

But how can they get included in the S&amp;P500? They need to be profitable (we do not know how good/bad the balance sheet and the "billions of profit might be a product of happy accounting). How can SpaceX cheat the system? Originally I thought about a merger with Tesla to increase the market cap and maybe Musk would get the infamous 1T bonus. The other option is even crazier but considering what happened last Friday is not impossible.

Some months ago SpaceX bought Echostar spectrum for 17B:

[https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/9/8/spacex-expands-starlink-satellite-network-with-17bn-echostar-deal](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/9/8/spacex-expands-starlink-satellite-network-with-17bn-echostar-deal)

They have continued to buy more spectrum from them:

[https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/spacex-buy-echostars-aws-3-spectrum-licenses-26b](https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/spacex-buy-echostars-aws-3-spectrum-licenses-26b)

That was done to keep improving their satellite to cell phone service which seems a relatively straightforward transaction. However, how would a simple transaction help SpaceX for unloading the bag on unsuspecting pension holders?

For some reason Echostar got added to the S&amp;P500 even though they did not meet the actual requirements and being a company that is not even profitable ATM. They used some accounting tricks to justify the addition to the index.

[https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/vertiv-lumentum-coherent-echostar-set-join-sp-500-2026-03-06/](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/vertiv-lumentum-coherent-echostar-set-join-sp-500-2026-03-06/)

So what are the chances that they are planning to to some merge / weird move so that SpaceX takes Echostar place in S&amp;P500? We all know that S&amp;P are a totally reputable and incorruptible company. By doing so, SpaceX would find the perfect exit liquidity on all those pension fund at an insane valuation.

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