u/Creepy_Science1310 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· February 28, 2026 at 15:18
· ⬆ 19 pts
· 💬 20 comments
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Summary
The post discusses a long-term investment thesis for Occidental Petroleum (OXY), which the author bought at a low price and is now holding with significant gains.
The author's core thesis is that OXY will transform over the next decade from a pure shale oil company into a diversified energy leader by leveraging technological advancements in drilling, carbon capture, geothermal energy, and lithium extraction.
This is primarily speculative, long-term thesis-building based on future technological possibilities rather than current, in-depth financial analysis.
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Only a year ago, OXY tanked to some $35 on liberation day.
I bought in at the low 40’s with a key vision:
“In the next decade, drilling is about to get a lot cheaper and faster (i.e. startups like Quaise and others). With carbon based enhanced oil recovery, they’ll get more out of the ground too. Direct Air Capture \*might\* progress far enough to be a viable source of carbon and reliably generate revenue selling carbon credits (this one looks less convincing imo). Once all the oil’s extracted, they’ll convert old sites into geothermal plants. On top of that they have the tech to extract lithium from the geothermal brine. Lastly, they also got all the subsurface data and infrastructure in the permian.
So while now it’s just a US shale oil company, who knows where they’ll be 10 years from now?
I think there’s a real chance they get oil breakeven sub $30, double their output, and transition into geothermal.”
Now, I’m in the green by a lot:
\- Higher oil prices due to middle east conflicts
\- Operational efficiency improvements
For the long term bag-holders, whatcha doing?