$AXON just reported the strongest quarter in its history and the stock is still 41% below its all-time high.

Q4 earnings dropped February 24th. $797M revenue, up 39% year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 against a consensus of $1.67. $14.4 billion in future contracted bookings. The stock surged 17% on the print and it's still sitting 41% below the August 2025 high of $885. I spent the last 2 days going deep on this — full fundamental, technical, and valuation analysis. Here's what I found. **The numbers that matter:** * Annual Recurring Revenue: $1.3B, up 35% YoY * Net Revenue Retention: 125% — meaning existing customers are spending 25% more every year with virtually zero churn * Future contracted bookings: $14.4B, up 43% — that's multi-year revenue visibility locked in * 4 consecutive years of 30%+ annual revenue growth * 2026 guidance: 27–30% revenue growth at 25.5% EBITDA margins * 2028 target: $6B revenue, 28% EBITDA margin Most people are underestimating that 125% NRR figure, this is the most important number in this entire company. It means even if Axon signed zero new customers, revenue still grows 25% annually from the existing base. A police department that adopts Axon doesn't just buy a taser; they end up on Axon Evidence, then Draft One for AI report writing, then Axon Fleet, then Axon 911, then Fusus for real-time crime centers. Every product deepens the dependency. Switching costs aren't financial — they're operational. Nobody rips out their entire department's digital infrastructure. Draft One (the AI report-writing tool) is already showing 80% reductions in officer administrative time at some agencies. **My price targets:** * Bear case (35x 2026E EBITDA): \~$405–545 * Base case (15x 2026E revenue): \~$680 in 12 months * Bull case (18x 2026E revenue): \~$811 **Entry zones I'd actually use:** * Ideal: $440–490 (gap fill zone, 3.7:1 risk/reward to $680 target with stop at $420) * Reasonable: $490–540 * Avoid chasing: above $560 without a pullback first This is a wide-moat compounder that's been beaten down 41% from its high while the underlying business got materially stronger. The math says fair value is $680–780 over the next 12–18 months depending on which methodology you use. *Not financial advice. Independent research by Yonatan Brunshtein — The Venture Analyst. I had no position in AXON at the time of writing.* **If you're interested in reading the full deep-dive — valuation tables, all the math laid out, entry analysis, complete risk register — the full report is linked below.** [Axon Article](https://open.substack.com/pub/yonatanbrunshtein/p/axon-enterprise-post-earnings-deep?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web)